Weather and Sailing 2024

By John Hasselgren

This year’s version of this oft-repeated event took place at the Royal Yacht Squadron's Castle in Cowes at the invitation of the Royal Yacht Squadron. Those of us who arrived on Friday to help set up the event were made welcome by the staff and enjoyed a very good dinner, with most staying in the Squadron’s overnight accommodation.

The following morning, once the delegates had arrived and had coffee, we were welcomed by the Commodore of the RYS, Sir James Holman. He assured us that the Squadron was delighted to host the Conference and informed us that the Castle wasn’t a sailing club but a home. We were cordially invited to treat it as our home for the day. Professor Liz Bentley, Chief Executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, added her welcome to that of Sir James and thanked Andrew Eccleston, who had arranged the speakers for the day; indeed, Andrew arranged speakers for the very first of these Conferences in November 2001, and every one since.

 

During the morning we saw three presentations covering Weather Routing, Ocean Racing and the use of Wind and Tidal Currents in Marine Operations.

Chris Tibbs opened the proceedings by talking about weather routing. Which route to take for long-distance sailors will depend on acceptable risk levels; when racing speed is important, when cruising comfort may be preferred. Sail or power, displacement or planing, will alter the decision, as will personal preferences and the time available. Polar diagrams of wind conditions are considered more useful but are most accurate for light displacement boats in smooth water. Realistically these will usually be 80%, or lower, correct for offshore cruising. On shorter routes such as cross-Channel, high-resolution weather models are available, which may need altering according to coastal conditions. During these shorter passages, there is likely to be only a small change in the weather. On longer routes, one must consider the accuracy of and confidence in the forecast. Does it look right? It is best to compare multiple models of the weather and to split the route into shorter sections. Weather routing is a powerful tool, but it is important to be realistic. Weather is dynamic and it is humans that sail boats.

Winner of the Golden Globe Race, Kirsten Neuschäfer, was unable to be present. However, she was represented by a video of her being interviewed by Paul Heiney. This took place on zoom, each participant being in their own home. 

Paul Freeman from TideTech started with some history, informing us that Benjamin Franklin had helped all those years ago to track the Gulf Stream. Now, though, we have traditional routing charts and a general overview of ocean currents. The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) became famous with its East Australian Current (EAC) project by tracking fish along the coast. It also produced diagrams of seasonal current variations for the area. NASA altimetry satellites are also showing more accurate recent maps of ocean currents. Atmospheric forecasts are usually good for five days, sometimes extending to ten days. It is possible to select the altitude of the forecast, suitable for airmen, but the normal surface forecast is for ten metres above the ground or sea surface. For marine data for sailors, we were asked to consider the passage plan, the general location - ocean, coastal, local – the length of time, and the ability to obtain updates via radio or the internet. All this information can be obtained from the Met Office, Météo–France, Bureau of Meteorology Australia, TideTech, DTN˚, SPIRE, and NOAA Copernicus satellite.

In the question session before lunch, the following topics were raised:
• The use of AI in forecasting.
• The fact that only 3% of merchant ships are reporting weather conditions at sea.
• GRIB files don’t show weather fronts – advice, look at the rainfall charts.
• The effect of the jet stream.

Following an excellent lunch, Anahita Laverack enthralled the delegates with details of autonomous micro-sailing vessels designed to collect data from the oceans. Starting as a dinghy sailor before moving into yachting, Anahita’s thesis for her Masters Degree was on sailboat autopilots. This led to the start-up of Oshen, which is designing and building microvessels to easily collect ocean data, normally the province of large and costly equipment that is difficult to transport and deploy. Ocean data is required in many fields such as climate modelling, weather forecasting, Safety at Sea, offshore energy development and shipping routing. Currently, it comes from drifting buoys, satellites and large / existing autonomous sailing vessels. The microvessels, about 1 metre long, can be carried by one person and launched easily from a ship, a jetty or even a beach. Movement is powered by wind, and instruments by solar power with battery back-up. They look to be similar to Junk rigged, with a deep bulb keel. Initial challenges were the breaking of components, roll stability and waterproofing. The vessels can be programmed to follow a route or to remain in one location despite ocean currents. Initial tests were done in the Irish Sea withstanding winds of force 6, to prove hardware robustness and check data collection. Commercially DEFRA is interested in biodiversity and improving marine mammal monitoring, requiring a navigation algorithm change; a fleet with improved design is currently building.  The Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute has had one vessel operating in Monterey Bay for six months, and one patrolling across the Bristol Channel recently showed in advance the approach of very heavy rain.

Dale Smyth told us how the Clipper Round The World Yacht Race was run. Being different from other Round the World races, it didn’t require massive budgets nor involve professional adventurers.  Instead, the crews were ordinary people, paying and sailing under a professional Skipper and Mate. Being run every other year, the non-race years were spent giving the yachts a major overhaul and refit, seeking financial partners and training crews. The route for the race is broken into several legs, currently eight, with participants sailing one, more, or even all legs. Instead of rounding Cape Horn, the race crosses the North Pacific Ocean and then through the Panama Canal. An unusual concession is to the Doldrums; competitors can use engines to motor part of the way through this band of light or non-existent winds, which extends from 12˚ N to 2˚N. However, they can only motor through any 6˚ of Latitude within this band and may not leave the area until 60 hours have elapsed. Different weather conditions are to be expected for different legs; one main consideration is the need to be clear of the Caribbean by late June to avoid the hurricane season. There are extra points available beyond those for places in each leg of the race; these can be earned by sailing through ‘gates’ off the direct route from South Africa to Western Australia, by being the fastest boat between two latitude lines in the North Atlantic on the final leg and for the greatest distance sailed in any 24 hours.
 
A double act from James Scott and Cameron Hicks, both from the RNLI, gave a great insight into how the weather affected their operations. Coming from The Plymouth Lifeboat Station they were used to operating a Severn Class All-weather Lifeboat and an Atlantic 85 Inshore boat. The total crew of 28 experienced varied conditions from flat calm when in the Harbour and upriver to horrendously rough out at sea. These conditions would influence the decision to launch and which assets (which boat) to use. They may also see the need to call in a helicopter and the local Coastguard team. Casualty safety and condition, the impact on operational plans and search patterns were all affected by the weather.  Their interest was really in the sea state, wind speed and direction, visibility (sun, rain, snow, fog), water temperature, sunrise/set and tides (time of both high and low water). Forecasts were obtained from observations (looking out of window), local harbour readings, Marine Safety Information broadcasts, a local weather station and online. Weather could also limit the use of individual boats and their area of operation, especially concerning speed. There was also the problem of searching in the dark. When searching for a casualty, several different patterns were used. If a person is in the water, tidal drift would be factored in and leeway calculated. In 5 knots of wind, a person would be expected to drift 0.6 cable in an hour, 30 knots 2 cables. These calculations were all done with the aid of drift tables.

At this point in the Conference, Prof. Liz Bentley had to leave to travel to Heathrow for a flight to Baku in Azerbaijan to attend the COP 29 Conference. 

At the end of the afternoon, Tapio Lehtinen recounted his experiences in ocean racing, including his sinking and rescue in the 2022 Golden Globe Race. We were given a history of round-the-world sailing, starting with the last great grain race between full-rigged sailing ships in 1939 - 40, which followed the ocean wind patterns around the world. Frances Chichester made the first single-handed voyage around the world; then Robin Knox-Johnston became the first to do it non-stop. Now, we have regular races, both crewed and single-handed. Tapio himself has a long history of long-distance racing, including Round Britain, Whitbread Round-the-World, OSTAR, AZAB, Newport - Bermuda and two Golden Globes. In the 2022 Golden Globe race, when in the Southern Indian Ocean, despite having had a major refit, his boat Astoria sank following a rapid unidentified water intake in the stern.  Within 20 minutes she had gone. Rapidly donning a survival suit, Tapio launched the life raft, picked up his grab-bag and abandoned ship. His PLB brought him rescue in the form of Kirsten Neushäfer in Minnehaha, who picked him up and then transferred him to the bulk carrier Darya Gayatri. Undeterred, he then entered the 2023 Ocean Globe Race with a Finnish crew and completed it despite breaking the mast in the Fastnet race just 56 days before the start of the OGR.

All in all, it was an interesting and enjoyable day. The Royal Yacht Squadron and its Commodore, Sir James Holman, are to be thanked for their excellent hospitality.